Wednesday, February 20, 2013

Silver and Gold Continue To Bleed

Carnage is the word on the street when it comes to the precious metals and believe me when I tell you that I feel badly for anyone left holding the bag on silver and gold, especially those that bought at the extreme prices (May of 2011 for Silver and October of that year for Gold).  I am filled with anger at the charlatans that continued to tell investors to keep buying any dips and called for extreme price movements because of their manipulation claims.

The reality is as plain as day in the metals markets.

Silver has been in a bear market since its crash of May of 2011. The following chart illustrates this clearly.  Any bounce since that time have merely been countertrend bounces.
sILVER fEB 2013
The same holds true for gold after making an all-time top in October of 2011 it has failed to hold steady gains and has continued to be sold off.
gOLD DOWNTREND
I made a very controversial post asking my readers to take into consideration the very real fact that we might have been witnessing the start of the end of the bull markets in those precious metals.  I got eaten up, spit out, chewed and called about every name you can imagine on my blog and on the various sites that used to post my content.  I won’t even get into the emails that I received.  I’ve kept quiet moreso because life has simply gotten very hectic for me at the moment as my family deals with some tragedy and as I concentrate on my business.  However, I have continued to play the markets and continued to wait for an opportunity.  I didn’t play this silver and gold move but I do believe there is room for lower prices despite the fact that we may see an oversold bounce in the upcoming sessions.

Anyone trying to argue that silver and gold are simply correcting need a reality check.  In silver’s case, corrections don’t last 2 years.  With the FED divided, unemployment declining and the price of the metal failing to rise to new highs despite the calls from all those charlatans that I have written about (endless quantitative easing would send the metals to historic highs) you need to really examine those people and ask yourself why they never give the other side of the picture. Folks, be very very careful in the metals markets.  The charts say it all.  My post of two years ago says when I asked people to take a hard look at whether or not the metals had ended their decade long bull market (in the case of gold at least) asks a lot of hard questions that were simply brushed off.

Anyone following these markets over the last 3 years should by now know that the likes of Eric King and most of his guests are full of shit and have kept average investors in these markets far longer than they needed to be.  Not once as he, or his guests given out responsible advice (like it might be time to sell or sit on the sidelines).  That is about as irresponsible as it comes.  If you haven't learned that by now, you never will.

Gold has a very real chance of falling to $1475 while silver, short term can test $26.00 again and I maintain my calls made many times on this site that state that we could very well see $22.00. 

Remember, the miners breaking down was the omen that foreshadowed all of this …. nothing has changed.  There is value in junior stocks.  I am not talking about those… I am talking about the metals.  What I am angered about the most is that friends of mine continued to hold metal they bought near the highs and never once heeded my advice instead only listened to the bullshit permeating the airwaves about gold and silver ownership. 

There is a piece for gold and silver in very portfolio.  To stack away until your heart’s content is not the way to do it.  To listen to the lopsided tin foil hat bullshit spewed by GATA, Eric King, his guests, Zero Hedge and others of like minded ilk was perhaps the most irresponsible thing any investor in the metals could have done.  Their story never changed.  Always do yourselves a favor and study the other side of an argument before taking sides.

Guess what?  My story has changed.  I used to be a permabull, believing the bullshit until I started to study the other side. Since then, my views haven't changed much either; Notwithstanding corrective bounces, my sentiment remains bearish on the metals.  Yes, they will rally… but be weary of my head and shoulder pattern warning made months ago … that is, a major head and shoulders pattern foretelling a massive drop in silver comes into play if the metal takes out it’s $26.15 low.

Please feel free to revisit my post made on December 13, 2011: It Might Be Time To Acknowledge That The Gold Bull Market Has Ended

12 comments:

  1. Dan - I can feel your anger coming off the page as I read this. I share this anger. You, others and I tried so many times to warn, to advise and to debate. And we were always shot down by those with a fanatical devotion to what are, at the end of the day, simply lumps of metal.

    It's sad, but you can't save those who close their eyes to what's in front of them. Ironic, really, as that's a sentence that the goldbugs use all the time about their fondly imagined 'sheeple'. It gets clearer by the day who the real sheeple are in this game.

    I'm with you on junior minors, but I think I'll wait a bit longer yet. A real flush out of gold and silver could take them further down. No point rushing in until a bottom is established.

    Silver is poison. One day, the silverogosphere will use the names KWN, Turd and Harvey as synonyms for very vulgar words indeed. Gold may not be far behind. Your description of silver being in a bear market since May 2011 is at once utterly obvious to the thinking and utterly ignored by the poor bastards who bought in to the bullshit.

    I think you've done great work here. I have no doubt that your constantly rational advice has saved many. Don't stress too much about the multitudes that you could not save... (another phrase used so often by the silverogosphere... ;-) )

    JdA

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  2. I have no problem buying some silver here. If it goes lower I will buy a little more. I'm a long term holder and I tend to not get caught up in the daily hype on the up or down side. I expect in 10 years silver will be higher than today. I could be wrong but that goes for any investment. Our thesis on any investment could be wrong and those are the risks. I sleep well on my physical billion.

    All that said my ppp is giving back lots of my gains just like Tinka is doing for some folks. My aumn was never up but we are just going lower. I've been waiting for months to find a good entry into tkrff and I might get it now. If your correct about a prolonged bear market I guess these miners are going to zero.

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  3. The permabulls are vehemently crying manipulation and spouting their usual assurances that "this will pass" and "to buy every dip". I lost a small fortune listening to them (-$52K). I'm holding on to my physical but the paper game is over for me. Dan I've always appreciated your balanced view, untainted with emotion or hype. I just wish I listened to you earlier!! Oh well live and learn. Life is good :)

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  4. Dan D.,

    Almost a month and I've been going through withdrawals...
    No insult intended, but you're like my GrandFather 'Pepe'...Oh so wise and Oh so Trusted...Oh so Respected!

    I so appreciate your candor and it is obvious, you have no ladened agenda as you stated. I have been following you since your first 'TINKA' recommendation AND...you have been the 'spot' on..

    I have to thank you, as a 'student' you have been the wise Mentor and I have learned dearly.

    Yours Truly,

    CDM

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  5. Dan, I agree with many of your comments here. The perma-bull crowd can test my patience, especially KWN which goes above and beyond to ensure every article is calling Gold & Silver to the moon at every turn. Often a lot of misinformation, but I think some of it comes down to King leading his interviewee's in the questioning (so I don't put all of his guests in the same boat). Often when listening to the pod casts he presents the question in such a way that the interviewee is basically just agreeing with whatever he says.

    I do disagree on a couple of your points though. Firstly I don't agree that the bull market is dead. The secular bull market *could* still be in tact, but we will need to wait and see (neither of us can prove it one way or the other, so no point arguing).

    Also you say "In silver’s case, corrections don’t last 2 years" but if we look at history Silver's bull market has been a constant repetition of sharp advance, decline and then boring long consolidation.

    See this chart from my blog:
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-16jhD_OmkoI/UPCxBVEWoBI/AAAAAAAAB5w/4x6Jbs5d1Wg/s1600/Silver+Bull+Market+London+PM+Fix.png

    Granted this correction has lasted longer than previous, but it was also the largest advance in price. I guess I would see the entire last decade as a bull market in Silver, but given size of corrections I could understand if someone said it was a secular bull market with cyclical bears between each burst higher.

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  6. Just playing devil's advocate her (as I'm tentatively leaning on the bearish side for a little while longer) but looking at the bigger picture (ie a monthly chart) this is not what a downtrend looks like. It is a clear sideways consolidation, one which has been going on for nearly 2 years. Moreover, tops do not move sideways, consequently odds favour another leg up (but not necessarily new highs) at some stage

    As opined, this ongoing consolidation does not preclude a move higher from here but rather two probable short tern scenarios; 1) We stay in the range for a while longer (ca. 1500 - 1750) 2) We break lower to around 1450/00 zone.

    The second hypothesis (and one which I'm favouring for now) would be reminiscent of gold's action early 1970's

    This by no means is a criticism of your work, which I thoroughly enjoy.

    Leonardo

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  7. Dan, I don't think you understand. if you're STACKING, you still have your STACK! it's still JUST as valuable as it was before: in paperweight/doorstop sensibility, at least... A 1 ounce ASE makes a good paperweight no matter what price silver trades at... (/sarcasm)

    unfortunately, I'm guessing that most stackers aren't stacking for paperweight utility...

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  8. Jeanne D' ark... I think you have serious brain damage and your friends are too nice to tell you.

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  9. I think your view of Tinka is right on.
    I think your view of gold and siver is way off. I do agree that Eric King and his kind are doing harm to peoples' money.Yet I see gold and silver a means to protect yuour wealth. I have no faith in the USD for the future given the nonsense in Washington .The jury is out on your view that gold and siver are dead.
    You appear to be into charts and Clive Maund is a person on goldseek.com I have respect for his ability to read the tealeafs on the charts.He has just posted his view that gold is at the botton or close to it. He even states that is 1500 is broken then he may change his view.
    I can not believe that you are so right about tinka but may be so wrong about the metal market.
    Again thanks for you posting on tinka.

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    1. Only difference being Clive is into selling subscriptions, Dan here is not. Also, I used to read Maund's "charts" and he's about as good of a technical fortune teller as my next door neighbor's cat.

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  10. I've been pulling the "bull markets don't end like this" a lot lately and have differed to the price if Intel (INTL) stock from the mid-nineties into the 2000 bubble top as a comparison. For some reason, "normal people" understand stocks better than commodities.

    Anyway, INTC basically did a 10-bagger in 5 years. You can overlay the charts if you want, they're not exact in price action, but it's quite interesting in scope and behavior. We're talking a $3.50 to $35 move from '94 to '99. Hell of a move from any stretch of the imagination. Silver $4 to $21 in 5 years and $8.5 to $50 in 2.5 years? Couldn't even eek out a 6-bagger? Weak. Terribly weak. And silver is the "devil" because it's so "volatile?" Please.

    So what did INTC do after that run? 10x is huge!? Hast to correct and correct violently, right? Crash and burn? Sorry, no...it more than doubled to an all-time high of $75 and change for a 21x move in total in ONE YEAR.

    FWIW, INTC is now trading at the same price it was in 1997.

    As they say, 90% of the move comes in the last 10% of the time. You know, like when gold doubled in ~30 DAYS in 1979 into 1980. Look it up if you're thinking of calling BS right now. But I'm sure this time is different. Someone punch me in the face when this gets interesting. So, so bored. Slow motion melt-up and the shorts will get their faces ripped off....again.

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  11. The initial jobless claims number came out this morning and right on cue the precious metals were both attacked after being weak all through European trading. Gold was pushed back below the former Maginot line at $1585 only to recover with a vengeance and see the hedge fund shorts come in to keep the price below $1590 through the COMEX close as it could not be held back as the Euro recovered and surged back above $1.30.
    gold ira investment

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