The March To World War 3: A Look At The Syrian Conflict

The world is fraught with geopolitical tensions that have the potential to trigger a massive military movement that could take shape at any time and perhaps trigger World War 3. 

I’m not trying to exaggerate this point because I truly feel that the mightiest of powers in the world today differ on perhaps two of the biggest hotspots; Iran and Syria. 

We all know how the tensions in Iran reached the point at which they are at today. Not many people are too familiar with what is going on in Syria though which prompted me to write this piece.  The threat of war has, in my view, never been more severe than perhaps the period of time following the attack on the World Trade Centre in 2001.

Problems with Syria have been around for decades but it seemed that the world was able to absorb those nuisances because the people of Syria for the most part did not unite for change and did not challenge the regime. The revolution in Egypt though changed all that.  It sparked copy cat protests in dictatorship nations around the world but none made the headlines more than Syria.

It all came to a head in March of 2011 when Syrians held “Day of Dignity” demanding the release of political prisoners.  Syrian leader Assad declared that anyone protesting  against the government was a criminal.  In the southern city of Deraa, Assad’s forces shot a number of Syrian civilians dead during the protests.  This triggered days of violent unrest, more civilian deaths and the attention of the world media.  

President Assad went so far to dismiss government and accuse protesters of being Israeli agents,  “plants” so to speak that were there as agents provacateurs.

Soon after Assad ordered the army to sends tanks inter Deraa, Banyas and Homs along with suburbs of Damascas to “crush” anti-government protesters.  This led to the United States As a tightening sanctions against Syria to be followed shortly thereafter by the European Union.

In June of 2011, the Syrian government announced that over 100 security force troops were killed by “armed gangs”  in the northwestern region.  This led to (in their eyes) justification for sending armed troops to roll into the northwestern town of Jisr al-Shughour resulting in over 10,000 Syrians fleeing to Turkey.

Earlier that month the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) accused Syria of failing to comply with an enquiry into its suspected covert  nuclear program and reports its findings to the United Nations Secturity Council. Dair Alzour, the site that was alleged to be the reactor location was bombed by Israel in 2007, and the council found that it was "very likely a nuclear reactor" for producing plutonium, which Syria should have declared.

In July of 2011 protesters were quashed again by the Syrian military.  This results in a massive loss of life but some opposition activists escape and amass in Turkey where they start to form a unified opposition.

On August 18, 2011 U.S. President Barack Obama called on Syrian President Assad to step down. New economic sanctions were imposed by America and Europe.  Obama made the appeal after 5 months of brutal Syrian government crackdown against opposition protestors who are seeking an end to the 41 year reign by Assad and his deceased father.

In early October of 2011 Europe presents a UN Security Council resolution that threatened sanctions against the Syrian regime if it did not immediately halt its military crackdown against civilians Russia and China both veto it.

In November the Arab League holds a vote to suspend Syria after the League accuses the latter of failing to implement an Arab peace plan.  Shortly thereafter the Arab League imposes sanctions.

At the same time, Syrian Army defectors attack a military base near Damascus in the defectors’ (Free Syrian Army) most high-profile attack since protests began. This is followed by attacks on foreign embassies by government supporters.

Late in 2011 the United Nations put the official death toll from violence in Syria since the political uprising began at 5,000 although many experts claim the death toll is actually much higher.

This violence continues into 2012.  A high profile situation included the suicide bombing in January that killed 26 in Damascus. The government vows an ''iron fist'' response.  The Arab League who had previously been allowed into the nation to monitor the situation suspends its activities because of the worsening violence.

On February 4, 2012, Russia and China again vetoed a U.N. resolution that would have backed an Arab plan calling on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to quit, stalling global efforts to end his bloody crackdown on unrest after hundreds were reported killed in the city of Homs.

Shortly thereafter Syrian government forces step up their offensive in Homs and neighbouring cities that leave 200 dead.  This prompts immediate response by U.S. President Obama in a statement wherein he proclaimed that the United States stands with the opposition and declared that "Assad has no right to lead Syria, and has lost all legitimacy with his people and the international community."

Violence has continued to escalate in Syria with government forces showing no intent of letting up despite repeated pleas by the international community.

Today, Feb. 24, 2102,  President Obama renewed his pleas for the violence to end in Syria stating that “It’s time for the killing to end”. Obama said that the international community must band together to press Assad to step down and allow rescue workers evacuate wounded women, children.

Hillary Clinton weighed in by stating that if the regime refuses aid, it will have even more blood on its hands while warning that Assad would pay a heavy price for the violence in Syria.

Said Obama:

"All of us seeing the terrible pictures coming out of Syria and Homs recently recognize it is absolutely imperative for the international community to rally in sending a clear message to President Assad that it is time for a transition… It is prime time to stop the killing of Syrian citizens by their own government"

Said Clinton:

"If the Assad regime refuses to allow this life-saving aid to reach civilians, it will have even more blood on its hands…So too will those nations that continue to protect and arm the regime".

Reuters also reported that Syrian security forces lined up and shot dead at least 18 people in a village in the central western Hama province.

Russia and China both continue to veto proposed UN resolutions against Syria and as a result, there can be no intervention by the international community.  Notwithstanding the economic sanctions placed on Syria by the United States and Europe, Syria continues to smuggle good across its porous borders and continues to house terrorists according to the West.

Assad continues to target international and domestic journalists in his effort to keep the truth of what is going on in this nation from reaching the outside world.  Just recently, American and French journalists were killed during mortar attacks.  At the same time he has shown no signs of letting up on the violence against his own people.

This problem in Syria will only end with military intervention and with the increased rhetoric coming from the West, namely the United States, it does appear that the march to war, either Iran, Syria or God forbid both, is closer than ever.  This Middle Eastern crisis certainly has all the hallmarks of the potential for global escalation and perhaps leading to World War 3.

It’s hard to speculate on why Moscow is pressing so hard to avoid supporting sanctions against Syria.  Russia’s ties with Syria date back to the cold war days but those ties are no longer relevant in today’s ever changed world where global economic trade has globalized economic activity.  Clearly a move by Russia to support UN Security Council resolutions could certainly allow the West/World to use all means to overthrow Assad including military intervention which is the most likely scenario.  Could it be that Russia doesn’t want to compromise the only naval base that it has outside of the old Soviet Union? (Tartus).  I highly doubt that this is the issue.  Russia could certainly ask for assurances that any military intervention would not compromise their ability to keep that naval base.  Or, is the money that these two nations receive for selling weaponry and perhaps covert nuclear secrets to Syria just too great a prize to forfeit at this juncture?

China, Iran and Russia stand in support of Syria and until one of the big two (Russia or China) ends their support for Assad there is no prospect for immediate intervention unless the West decides to go it alone, angering the “friends” of Syria and perhaps sucking their involvement in, on the wrong side.  What is certain is that the world cannot stand by and wait until Iran has nuclear weapon capability and certainly cannot sit by and continue the atrocities in Syria to continue.

If there is perhaps a glimmer of hope it comes from Western intelligence officials who say they believe Russia's patience may be running out with the Syrian regime.

In the meantime, the price of oil has skyrocketed and shows no sign of letting up.  The escalating price of oil has ramifications for global economies as countries already struggling to climb out of or prevent further recession find it increasingly difficult to overcome the hurdles of the high cost of oil. If there is perhaps one big factor that can derail any recovery it would be the increasing cost of oil and fuel.  Certainly international governments will continue to take this into consideration and will be watching it intently. 

In the end, no matter what the conflict of late, it always seems to come down to oil doesn’t it?

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